economic progress: Stay invested! India growth story intact, but rational yet conservative approach must

The budget continues to build on the recent economic progress, and despite substantial provisions for necessary investments, the fiscal deficit is decreasing. It notably prioritises nine areas, which include agriculture, employment, human development, energy security, manufacturing, innovation, infrastructure, and next-generation reforms.

Significant allocations and initiatives are aimed at transforming India’s education and employment landscape.

Efforts have also focused on increasing and simplifying taxation in areas where the market can absorb the changes, thereby reducing tax complexities. Tax increases in areas like long-term capital gains tax have been implemented in segments where the market can handle them. Government steps to aid asset allocation, such as the removal of indexation in real estate, are welcome as they are expected to increase transaction volumes.

Overall, the budget supports continued growth, meeting our requirements, and maintaining a positive outlook. Despite a bright economic outlook, India’s market valuations remain rich, with the market cap-to-GDP ratio at 140%, much above the historical average of 89%. Investor interest in the equity market has been a dominant theme since Covid until now. When liquidity is excessive and valuations are elevated, there is little or no margin of safety. Consequently, this calls for a cautious investment strategy.

Currently, market valuations, especially in mega caps and large caps, are not excessively high. However, we are seeing a gradual shift from fair value to slightly above fair value across the board. We maintain a cautious view on small and mid-cap stocks, focusing on a stock-specific approach.

In this context, a rational yet conservative approach is essential, focusing on diversified asset allocation. This involves distributing investments across equities, debt, commodities, and cash. Such a multi-asset strategy ensures balanced risk and return, making it the optimal approach in the present market conditions.

Existing investors should stay invested as India’s long-term growth story remains intact. Those adding equity should focus on investment schemes like largecap, flexi-cap, business cycle, manufacturing, energy or hybrid categories.

To summarise, India’s structural reforms present a distinct economic growth path for the next several decades. The budget continues to build on the reform progress made by the government over the past several years. The primary challenge is that Indian markets are not cheap, hence the emphasis on conservative investing strategies. Our top sector picks are banks, insurance and pharma.

(The author is S NAREN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC )