ITC Limited is expected to report a steady but mixed performance in the December quarter, with brokerages pencilling in modest growth in net revenue and operating profit, supported by improving cigarette volumes and margin expansion. However, divergence in profit estimates reflects concerns around pricing, cost pressures and the outlook for cigarette taxation.

The FMCG to agri conglomerate is expected to post a net profit growth of 4% to 8% year on year, according to the estimates of three brokerages, while Nuvama Institutional Equities pegs a 6.4% fall in the same quarter. The range for profit after tax (PAT) is estimated at Rs 5,075 crore to Rs 5,280 crore.

Revenue could grow by 6% to 8.4% YoY in the range of Rs 18,064 crore to Rs 19,572 crore, according to the estimates revealed.

YES Securities, Elara Capital and JM Financial are other brokerages whose estimates have been taken into account.

Margins may increase YoY while declining sequentially. The key monitorable will be the company’s commentary on pricing of FMCG goods across segments.

1) PAT

YES Securities: Adjusted PAT estimated at Rs 5,280 crore, up 8% year on year.

Elara Capital: PAT pegged at Rs 5,110 crore, up 4.4% YoY and marginally higher by 0.3% QoQ.

Nuvama Institutional Equities: PAT seen at Rs 5,075 crore, down 6.4% YoY and 3.7% QoQ, reflecting margin pressure and a high base.

JM Financial: PAT expected at Rs 5,262 crore, up 5% YoY and 3% QoQ.

2) Revenue

YES Securities: Revenue estimated at Rs 18,211 crore, reflecting a 7% YoY growth.

Elara Capital: Revenue seen at Rs 18,250 crore, up 7% YoY and 1.3% QoQ.

Nuvama Institutional Equities: Revenue projected at Rs 18,064 crore, growing 6% YoY and 0.2% QoQ.

JM Financial: Revenue expected at Rs 19,572 crore, up 8.4% YoY and 2% QoQ, the most optimistic among peers.

3) EBITDA

YES Securities: EBITDA estimated at Rs 6,381 crore, up 10% YoY.

Elara Capital: EBITDA projected at Rs 6,250 crore, up 7% YoY and flat sequentially.

Nuvama Institutional Equities: EBITDA seen at Rs 6,232 crore, up 7% YoY but down 0.3% QoQ.

JM Financial: EBITDA expected at Rs 6,254 crore, reflecting a 7.3% YoY growth and flat QoQ performance.

4) Margins

YES Securities: Gross margin and EBITDA margin are expected to improve by 62 bps and 86 bps YoY to 55.1% and 35%, respectively, aided by operating leverage and pricing.

Nuvama Institutional Equities: EBITDA margin estimated at 34.7%, up 30 bps YoY but down 20 bps QoQ, indicating some sequential pressure.

5) Volume

YES Securities: Expects ITC’s overall topline growth to be led by a 7% YoY volume increase in the cigarette business. Agri business, other FMCG and paperboards, paper and packaging revenues are seen growing 5%, 8% and 6% YoY, respectively.

Elara Capital: Models volume growth of 5.7% in Q3FY26, improving from 2% in the previous quarter.

Nuvama Institutional Equities: Estimates cigarette volume growth at 5.5% YoY, driven by continued recovery in consumption.

6) Key monitorables

Nuvama flags the risk of a potential duty hike on cigarettes, which could be announced soon and remains a key overhang for the stock.

The D Street will also watch out for commentary on pricing actions in cigarettes and margin sustainability across FMCG segments.

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