Stock market investors made $1.5 trillion since last Diwali. What Samvat 2081 has in store

With Nifty ending Samvat 2080 with a 25% gain and scores of stocks in the broader market giving multibagger returns, investor wealth, as measured by the total market capitalization of all BSE-listed stocks, rose by Rs 128 lakh crore or about $1.5 trillion since last Diwali.

Samvat 2080 now goes in record books as the highest wealth-creating year.

“This growth was fuelled by strong corporate earnings, improved GST collections, a revival in the Capex cycle, favourable monsoon conditions, and high domestic demand. Additionally, liquidity inflows from mutual funds and positive global cues contributed to market resilience. Globally, US indices also posted gains of 27% to 35% during this period, reflecting a synchronized rally,” said Dr Vikas Gupta, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist, OmniScience Capital.

During the year, NSE’s investor base surpassed the 20 crore mark while the mutual fund industry’s managed assets reached about Rs 68 lakh crore, with monthly SIP inflows nearing Rs 25,000 crore, achieving life-high levels.

The biggest learning from this Samvat, analysts say, was not to underestimate the upside potential in a bull market. Everyone who booked small profits in equities never got a chance to enter again, said Amit Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Global Strategist, Pace 360.

“On the flip side, a significant misstep was over-allocating to high-risk equities, especially during periods of market euphoria. The resulting drawdowns emphasized the importance of systematic buying and the rebalancing of portfolios from time to time,” he said.

Outlook for Samvat 2081

While the long-term growth story for Indian equities remains stronger-than-ever, current valuations leave limited room for expansion.”This means that growth in corporate earnings will be a pivotal driver of market returns. Stock picking with a balance of growth – at a reasonable price – and quality will be critical to achieving good returns over the coming year,” said Pranav Haridasan, MD and CEO of Axis Securities.

Bajaj Broking expects Nifty to aim for the 28,400 level by Diwali 2025.

“This target aligns with the rising trendline on the yearly chart that connects major highs since 2014, as well as the measuring implications of previous significant rallies. However, the upward movement is expected to be accompanied by volatility rather than a straight path. We believe a healthy correction will make the market healthy for long-term uptrend,” he said.

However, corporate earnings, after four consecutive years of healthy double-digit growth, are moderating due to pressures from commodities and fading tailwinds from BFSI asset quality improvements.

“Nifty earnings growth is likely to remain steady at ~12% CAGR over FY24-26. Hence For Samvat 2081, we expect Nifty to deliver returns similar to earnings growth as valuations remain near long term averages,” Motilal Oswal’s Siddhartha Khemka said.

The brokerage has identified sectors such as Financials, Consumption, Industrials, EMS, Technology, and Healthcare for investment in 2081.

As the earnings growth is expected to be muted at the aggregate levels, HDFC Securities expect benchmark indices like Nifty to generate modest returns.

As we roll-over into FY26, we expect aggregate growth to resume and indices to offer low double digit returns to investors, Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities, said.