As expected, Republican Donald Trump won Indiana and Kentucky while Democrat Kamala Harris captured Vermont, Edison Research projected, as polls closed in the first six U.S. states.
Treasury yields climbed as some betting sites swung to favour Trump, while futures markets were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Analysts generally assume Trump’s plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than Harris’ centre-left policies.
“As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
“There’s not a lot of conviction in these moves; it seems like these are little pops.” Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.34%, from 4.28%, and nearer a four-month high of 4.388% touched last week. Two-year yields climbed to 4.245%, from 4.189% late n New York. S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% in choppy trading, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.2%, while DAX futures tacked on 0.4%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.1%, tracking rallies on Wall Street overnight. [.N[]
In currency markets, the dollar index added 0.6% to 103.98. The euro slipped 0.6% to $1.0867, having hit a one-month top of $1.0937 overnight. The dollar firmed 0.5% to 152.61 yen, and further off a low of 151.34. [USD/]
The dollar gained 0.3% on the offshore yuan to 7.1227 yuan. China is seen on the front line of tariff risk, and its currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar around record highs.
Chinese stock markets have surged to almost one-month highs as investors expect a meeting of top policymakers in Beijing this week to approve local government debt refinancing and spending.
A firmer dollar combined with higher bond yields to pressure gold prices, which dipped 0.2% to $2,738 an ounce and away from a recent record peak of 2,790.15. [GOL/]
Oil prices were down in early Asia trade as markets nervously waited on the U.S. election results. They had risen overnight as a storm was expected to cut U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico. [O/R]
U.S. crude lost 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.76 per barrel.
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